I used to think thought experiments - including Philippa Foot's trolleys - were ludicrously artificial. I preferred working with actual instances for philosophising from the world as I found it, no matter how messy. But recently I have changed my mind somewhat, and decided thought experiments can be useful. I am still suspicious, but would agree those trolleys and fat men pushed in front of them have opened questions (still unresolved I believe) about the reliability of our moral intuitions.
Although the idea for my own experiment came to me independently, I note the parallel with historian Niall Ferguson's argument (Times, Jan 10) that politics is following patterns formed 120 years ago; at the time of Theodore Roosevelt, imperial Germany and an aging British Empire. Bear with me - just imagine President Trump and his acolytes are really undercover Marxist-Leninists aiming to restore their theory of imperialism and capitalism to the intellectual mainstream. The question to ponder is: In what ways would their actions be different from what we see if that were really the case? I can suggest tax cuts for the wealthy or oil seizures would fit Marxist theory, do they not? Maybe stopping university funding not only curbs some silly fads, but also puts scientific research under state control? Curiously, Lenin's interpretation of imperialism/capitalism dates from that same period in history that Ferguson thinks we are (in principle) copying.
One other angle - winding up Nato might show up how far American (foreign) policy was always dominated by religion and the Biblical vote. Now, Russia is led by a 'defender of Christian civilisation' (beating any American into the ground for hypocrisy), so America's religionists are not motivated to back Europe or anywhere outside their 'backyard'. The atheist Leninists are left to make oil the update for that dear old United Fruit Company.
Leaving thought experimentation behind, one more question: Can we deviate from the 120 year old track before ending with Ferguson's suggested conclusion - World War Three?