Becoming less commonplace only than the observation that Trump is a regular liar, is the (not) paradoxical accompaniment that he tells the truth in showing the 'rules based order' doesn't matter - it's all about strength, military and economic. Despite my own personal preferences, I agree about this, except for one thing. In the 19th century world of of great power rivalry and imperialism rules were only just beginning to be framed. But there is now one massive rule which already does apply, which the professionals rarely cite publicly, because it does not appear in the print of treaties, declarations, or conventions. It's the rule Niall Ferguson has hinted at - Avoid World War Three (AWWT).

Nuclear weapons have been with us for 80 years now, but they remain the simple old standby if we want to annihilate ourselves. The point about World War Three is it would almost cetainly involve at least some of the nine current nuclear powers (and there are likely to be some additions to that group in the future). It is hard to imagine either side in such a conflict meekly accepting defeat without trying a nuclear strike. AWWT hung in the background while Russian leaders avoided following nuclear bluster with nuclear action and the Biden administration tiptoed toward calling their bluff. Again, it has been smoked out of hiding when the international 'community', and now an erratic Trump administration, work to prevent the Iranian regime developing nulcear weapons when Israel already has them. A charge of hypocrisy can be met if Iran supports jihadists who might actually believe they go to paradise if they are killed fighting infidels, whilst Jews (including Zionists) do not. (I remain a firm supporter of a 'two-state solution' for Palestine, but AWWT must be obeyed).

Despite its informal position, AWWT makes a radical change from times before the rules based order emerged (intermittently) after the First World War. In the last analysis, while leaders might protect thmeselves in bunkers, they eventually have to come out. A readioactive wasteland is not much of an empire.

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